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US election insights: US dollar bond strategy
12 Nov 2024
Rick Patel, Portfolio Manager, Fidelity International
The key theme here for fixed income markets will be tariffs and a loosening fiscal backdrop. Broad tariffs, and any ensuing retaliation or trade war, will potentially have both inflationary and negative growth implications. Stricter immigration policies will also feed into the ongoing labour market uncertainty. This will challenge the US Federal Reserve’s (Fed) dual mandate to manage both growth and inflation, with likely ongoing volatility in rates markets as the data plays out. The longer end of the yield curve will be particularly vulnerable to a sell-off as the market prices longer-term fiscal largesse.
On the currency side, the US Dollar will likely continue to benefit, particularly against Mexican Peso, Euro and Canadian Dollar given trade related factors. Looking at credit markets, the recent strong demand for yield should continue to be supportive overall, however spreads will likely be more vulnerable to the shifting growth, trade and geopolitical concerns.
Financials, energy and defence sectors will be in a position to benefit from any regulatory relaxation. Utilities may face challenges from withdrawal of support for the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) and clean energy policies implemented by the Biden administration, whilst consumer and autos sectors will face headwinds from tariffs. Looking to international implications, European growth is fragile and corporate fundamentals have not remained as strong as in the US, leaving markets vulnerable. The struggling European autos sector will likely continue to underperform with trade tensions being the primary concern, whilst cyclical sectors will also struggle.
